Over their previous five games, the Giants had drawn 33 walks — 31 of them unintentional; this is a team that’s been all about swinging at the first pitch, putting the ball in play, and avoiding strikeouts at the expense of working the count and drawing walks, but for once, it seemed as though they had begun to adopt a more patient approach. Sunday’s game against Bartolo Colon — who had walked eight of the 237 batters he’s faced this season — presented this team with a good test.
And at first, it looked like they would fail that test. Gregor Blanco struck out on three pitches to lead off the game. Brandon Crawford then struck out on three pitches as a follow-up. Melky Cabrera popped a ball up into left field that fell for a double, but Buster Posey grounded out to end the inning. It was going to be an afternoon of quick see-ya’s and weak contact.
But in the second inning, Angel Pagan got the Giants on the board by way of some excellent baserunning — first by barely stretching a single into a double (he’s now hit safely in 31 of his last 32 games), then by tagging up twice on flyouts.
The Giants scored their first two runs via the sacrifice fly, bringing their running total to seven sac flies over the last four games. They had seven sac flies through their first 36 games. Hey, if they’re not going to get hits with runners in scoring position, at least they’re finding other ways to get the runs in.
Except, those would be their only two runs on the day, as Colon held them in check for five innings — and, in the process, racked up the strikeouts. Colon had struck out five hitters over his last three starts, but managed to K seven Giants in his five innings of work.
The fifth inning was particularly ugly, as the Giants failed to capitalize on a bases-loaded less-than-two-outs situation. Angel Pagan worked the count full, then struck out looking on an inside pitch which — to Colon’s credit — had some beautiful movement. Then, in an at-bat that featured some pretty bold and arguably ill-advised two-strike takes, Belt eventually did the same thing: struck out looking on a 3-2 pitch.
As for the pitching side of things, that wasn’t too pretty either. The A’s are one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to hitting right-handed pitchers; as a team, they’ve hit .211/.289/.333 against righties, with an AL-worst 75 wRC+. Today was as good a day as any for Tim Lincecum to give the Giants one of his trademark dominant outings. And through the first three innings, he was. He was throwing strikes, getting whiffs, and keeping hits to a minimum. In the first inning, he struck out the side — all three of ‘em swinging. In the second, he retired the side in order, tallying a fourth strikeout. In the third, he pitched out of a two-out runner-on-third jam, getting Cliff Pennington to ground out.
But in the fourth inning, it all unraveled. Seth Smith and Josh Donaldson hit back-to-back singles. Daric Barton drew a six-pitch walk. And with the bases loaded, Lincecum fell behind to both Kurt Suzuki and Colin Cowgill, eventually serving up RBI singles to both of ‘em. Lincecum eventually got out of the inning with a Pennington foulout; but the damage was done: four runs on four hits, two walks, and a grand total of 41 pitches.
Lincecum wasn’t exactly hit hard, but his command was all over the place, and it was more or less the same struggles we’ve seen out of him all season long. We’re now nine starts into the season, and Lincecum’s ERA is still over 6.00; he’s had one quality start, and even in that outing he walked four hitters, and only struck out five. DIPS says he hasn’t been all that bad — his FIP is at 2.93, which is identical to his career mark. But I have a hard time buying into the notion that he’s been as good as his underlying peripherals would suggest, and while I still expect him to bounce back, his command (paired with the dropoff in fastball velocity) is a very serious concern at this point.
- The Giants struck out looking eight times on the day, which is uncharacteristic of this team. Entering today, only 22% of their strikeouts were looking — which puts them in the bottom-10 in the majors. In fact, when Crawford struck out looking in the seventh inning of yesterday’s game, it had ended a streak of 21 consecutive swinging strikeouts.
- Aside from his sac fly, Belt had a rough day at the plate, as he accounted for three of the Giants’ strikeouts. It’s only a matter of time before Aubrey Huff takes back the starting first base job.
- Melky Cabrera accounted for four of the Giants’ eight hits on the day, as he extended his season total to a major-league-leading 20 multi-hit games. His hits today weren’t especially impressive — a grounder that found a hole, a pop-up that dropped in for a double, and a couple bloops — and he’s bound to slow his pace eventually, but that’s not to take away from what he’s accomplished; he’s now within inches of .300/.400/.500 territory (currently hitting .353/.396/.497).
- Bruce Bochy continued his trend of leaving pitchers in the game too long. After Shane Loux had already given the Giants two scoreless innings, Bochy left him in the game to hit in the sixth inning, and he gave up a two-run shot to Josh Reddick upon coming back out for a third inning of work. For a manager generally lauded for his handling of pitchers, Bochy’s been unimpressive in that regard this season — to say the least.
For seven innings today, Ryan Vogelsong was at the top of his game. Through the first 4.1 innings, in fact, he was perfect — sending each of the first thirteen hitters straight back to the dugout. Seth Smith eventually broke up the perfect game bid with a single into right field, but that would be the only hit off Vogelsong on the day, as he promptly coaxed a double play out of Josh Donaldson and proceeded to tack on another couple scoreless innings. He needed to face only 22 batters to record 21 outs. For a guy that’s had a rollercoaster of a career, this is quite probably the best game he’s ever pitched; the game score — 79 — marks a new career-best.
Both teams were scoreless through six, but the heart of the Giants’ order came through in the seventh, with Melky Cabrera, Buster Posey, and Angel Pagan combining to drive in four runs. And that would be all the Giants needed, as Javier Lopez and Clay Hensley were shut-down mode in relief.
Notes:
- I hate the idea of Brandon Crawford batting second in the order. It’s a common-sense thing — why give one of the team’s worst hitters the second-most at-bats? That said, it is nice to see Crawford starting to find a groove. It’s worth noting that he’s been somewhat unlucky to this point; after today, his line is up to .233/.276/.342 on the season. I don’t think he’s much better than that, but he’s certainly capable of fighting his way to a .270 wOBA and smoothing out the defense, and that’ll at least be a step up from the replacement level production he’s given the Giants thus far.
- Angel Pagan has gone hitless once in the last 31 games. After that one horrible week to begin the season, Pagan has managed to bring his numbers up to .304/.353/.462 — and he’s eight for nine on stolen base attempts. It’s made his frequent defensive gaffes a bit more tolerable.
- What a godsend Gregor Blanco has turned out to be. In not even 100 plate appearances, he’s already posted 1 WAR. He’s currently getting on base at a clip of .416, and he’s drawn a walk for every strikeout. He’s also swiped four bags and looked solid with the glove. Aside from the lack of power, he’s pretty much the whole package, eh? Another brilliant minor-league signing.
- Speaking of which, three players in today’s starting lineup — Blanco, Arias, Vogelsong — were originally acquired via minor-league free agency; nothing extraordinary, but it struck me as noteworthy.
- Quick — who leads the majors in multi-hit games? You can’t go wrong with either M. Cabrera — Melky and Miguel are now tied for the major-league lead in multi-hit games, at 19. For all the problems with the Giants’ current infield, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cabrera-Pagan-Blanco trio in the outfield.
- The Giants signed Brad Penny to a minor-league contract. This is a guy who averaged 3.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 31 starts last season, so I’m (understandably) not expecting much. At the very least, I hope he isn’t needed in any important situations.
Earlier today, the San Diego Padres finally began the process of unconditionally releasing second baseman Orlando Hudson. He’d hit .211/.260/.317 across 131 plate appearances, which is lousy production even after adjusting for the PETCO Park effects. But for the previous nine seasons, he’d been as steady a second baseman as there is. Nine consecutive seasons of average production — or thereabouts — and often a hair above that. If my memory serves me right, second basemen generally hit their decline phase early — relative to other positions — so these 35 games of hitting woes are likely more than just a month-long slump.
But then you look at what the Giants have gotten from their second basemen this season: .197/.245/.204 in 150 plate appearances entering today. With that in mind, Hudson is an obvious target. At worst, he continues to hit as poorly as he has been hitting — which, overall, isn’t as terrible as it might seem. Considering he’s a middle infielder in the least hitter-friendly park in baseball, playing in a year when run-scoring has been very low, he hasn’t been that bad. In fact, Fangraphs has him at exactly replacement level. Best case scenario: he does what he’d done the previous nine years. Nothing fancy; just good old average production. Of course, the probable scenario is something in between that; maybe a 1 WAR/600 PA pace. He’s lost a step or two on defense, and his bat isn’t what it used to be, but that’s within reasonable reach for him. The Giants wouldn’t be on the hook for any of his contract, either; at league-minimum, there’s really no reason for the Giants not to pursue Hudson and sub him into the roster spot that Charlie Culberson is currently occupying.
Culberson, in fact, was the only position player in today’s starting lineup that didn’t have a hit or a walk; put Hudson in there instead, and things don’t look all that bad:
Blanco RF, Crawford SS, Cabrera LF, Posey C, Pagan CF, Belt 1B, Burriss 3B, Hudson 2B, Pitcher.
Especially a month from now when Pablo Sandoval returns at third base.
Speaking of which, what a much needed shot in the arm today’s game turned out to be. Is Gregor Blanco not the ideal leadoff hitter? That combination of on-base skills and speed is simply perfect. Meanwhile, Brandon Crawford actually came through at the plate today; Buster Posey and Brandon Belt combined to reach base six times in this game; and Angel Pagan more than doubled his walk total for the month of May with today’s performance.
I mean, it’s been five years since Adam Wainwright struck out this few hitters in an outing, so this was a surprisingly strong showing from the Giants’ offense.
Not the best outing from Matt Cain either, but he’s now got a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 54/10 on the season.
Anyway, an excellent victory today for the Giants. They’re still .500; if they were in the NL East, they’d be tied for last place. At this point, expectations should be tempered. But they probably have enough to hang in there — and with the proper adjustments and tinkering, perhaps make a legitimate run at the playoffs.
When the Giants departed for Los Angeles, they were 14-14. After going 3-3 on this road trip, they’ve improved to…17-17. That’s .500 ball, a win for every loss. Have the Giants done anything to indicate that they’re anything more than a .500 team (particularly with Pablo Sandoval on the DL for another five weeks or so)?
If I was told before the season started that there would be a baseball team starting an infield of Hector Sanchez/Brett Pill/Charlie Culberson/Joaquin Arias/Brandon Crawford, I would have assumed that it was the Fresno Grizzlies. That’s the reasonable assumption. Each and every one of these guys could (or should) justifiably be in Triple-A right now.
That’s the sad state of the Giants right now:
- Desperate for offense, they rushed a 22-year old catcher so they could get this kind of production out of him: .267/.274/.350
- Joaquin Arias, who hit .232/.272/.353 in Triple-A last year, is now the starting third baseman
- Brandon Crawford has done nothing with his glove to redeem his expectedly terrible hitting
- Charlie Culberson, who couldn’t even manage a .300+ OBP in Double-A last season, will now presumably be seeing a lot of time at second base; for the record, I think his 7th-inning at-bat paints a pretty clear picture of what we’ll be seeing from him
And Brett Pill…well, I actually don’t mind Pill starting against left-handed pitchers all that much. So long as it isn’t a strict platoon with Brandon Belt. Plenty of southpaws (Joe Saunders included) are much more effective against left-handed hitters, and throwing Pill up there against a guy like Saunders isn’t such a big deal. Similarly, it’s not as though Belt should be sheltered against left-handed pitching. In fact, I think it’s crucial that he gets a steady diet of lefties. But the “Pill starting against left-handed pitchers” issue is merely masking all of the other glaring problems with this team.
In spite of it all, the Giants went 3-3. For all their obvious deficiencies, they’re .500 right now. I fear that’ll be the case all year long. Kept in contention by their pitching and few bright spots on offense, but held back from a postseason berth by the rest of the team. A natural ebb and flow of hope, created and destroyed. And with a second wild card spot, it won’t take much to reach that postseason berth. The Giants will act accordingly. That’s my biggest fear: that the Giants will jeopardize the long-term outlook of the team for the sake of mildly improving their odds this season.
…and that was the low point in the season. So far, that is. Barry Zito, to his credit, did fifth starter things — which is to say, he was good enough. Three runs in six innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is nearing sub-1.00 territory, but that seems like the least of the Giants’ problems right now.
Brett Pill is not a left fielder. Conor Gillaspie isn’t much of a third baseman, either. With this Giants roster, there are actually quite a few lineup variations that are capable of playing good defense. This was not one of them — not by a longshot.
And the offense. Oh my. Ted Lilly kept them to one run over six innings; the Dodgers’ bullpen kept them silent. Hector Sanchez struck out three times; the 1-2 of Pagan/Theriot put up a collective 0-for-9; and “lefty-masher” Brett Pill failed to reach base. In the first pitch of his first at-bat returning from the DL, Aubrey Huff promptly flied out to center. And yet, the Giants still managed to get enough runners on base to strand ten of ‘em. The Giants haven’t hit a home run in 60 innings.
As of now, the Giants have scored 109 runs; they’ve allowed 114 runs. And they still have to get through the next six weeks without Pablo Sandoval. Just an incredibly frustrating loss.
Guillermo Mota will face a 100-game suspension after testing positive for Clenbuterol, a drug that apparently has aerobic benefits, reports Jon Morosi. This is the second time Mota has been suspended for PEDs, as he served 50 games back in 2006 when he was with the New York Mets. Mota is appealing his suspension, according to Andrew Baggarly, but because he’s a second-time offender, he must start serving it immediately. This means the Giants will go through the next three to four months without Mota.
In the past couple seasons, Mota has emerged as a useful innings-eater in the Giants’ bullpen. In fact, last season he had a couple outings of 4+ innings — something he had never done before. Ultimately, his tenure with the Giants has been nothing short of mediocre (90 ERA+ across 145 innings), but there’s still value in that. That said, it’s not as though this will be much of a roadblock for the Giants this season.
UPDATE: According to ESPN, Mota’s agent said that the Clenbuterol was in children’s cough medicine that Mota had taken.
This is a graph of Tim Lincecum‘s strikeout-to-walk ratio through the years. Ignore that last data point if you want — he’s only thrown thirty innings this season — but the trend is still the same. He peaked in 2009, when he was 25 years old. At this point, I think it’s pretty safe to expect Lincecum to never reach that point again.
Now here’s Matt Cain‘s graph. Again, ignore that last data point if you want, but the general point is clear: even as Cain has gotten older, he’s kept on goin’. He’s now 27 years old, and he’s already passed the point where he should’ve began his decline. Cain’s track record speaks for itself, but one of the main things that stands out to me is that he hasn’t started to drop off yet; in fact, one could argue that he’s improved. After today’s performance, his K/9 is at a career high, his BB/9 is at a career low, and his ERA is at a career low. Small samples be damned, his ability to stand the test of time has been wonderful, and it’s not something to take for granted. While Tim Lincecum’s future (both as a Giant and in general) is up in the air at this point, Cain is here for the long haul. After Madison Bumgarner‘s excellent start yesterday, there was a lot of talk about how Bumgarner had claimed the title of “most reliable Giants starter” or “best Giants starter so far.” Whatever it was, I think Cain stated his case pretty clearly today.
Cain didn’t get the win though, of course. But the offense did just enough to give the Giants the series victory. A couple players in particular stood out to me with their hitting today, and obviously they’re the two guys I can’t shut up about: Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera.
Pagan extended his hitting streak to 20 games, though he’s been getting by with a lot of .250/.250/.250 performances (meaningless 1-for4s). Today wasn’t one of those, as Pagan had two hits — one of them a well-struck double down the first base line — and got the Giants a very important run in the first inning by beating out a double play. Oh yeah, and he stole a base. His OBP is still in sub-.300 territory, but whatever. Fueled by an early power surge, he’s been above-average hitter thus far (105 wRC+). He dug himself a sizable hole at the beginning of the year with that first-week slump, but he’s already worked his way out of it and then some.
As for Melky, he put up a 1-for-5 — but that was only because he was robbed of a double in the tenth inning. Both of his hits — the actual one and the would-be one — were to the opposite field, too. In case you haven’t noticed, he’s pretty good at this opposite-field hitting business: since the start of 2011, he has 61 opposite-field hits.
And unlike Pagan, he’s been excellent with the glove: today’s notable was that 11th inning double play — he robbed Jonathan Lucroy of a bloop single then proceeded to double up Corey Hart at first base.
Pagan, meanwhile, continues to disappoint with his defense. I’m not sure if an average centerfielder catches Travis Ishikawa‘s ninth inning game-tying double. But I’m certain of the fact that Pagan is capable of getting to that ball if he takes a better route, and I also have no doubt that Andres Torres would have made that catch.
Entering the season, I felt the Giants had a top-notch defense; so far, that hasn’t been the case at all. Melky has been better than expected, and Emmanuel Burriss has shown a bit more range than I thought he had. But other than that, they’ve been utterly disappointing. Especially with the easy stuff — the routine plays. Bobbling grounders, failing to communicate in the outfield, et al. That’s exactly why I’m not too worried about this, though. I don’t think the Giants are fundamentally flawed on defense — it’s not as though they’re not getting to the ball in the first place, for example; they’re just making a few (costly) mistakes here and there. In other words, I don’t expect this to be a lingering issue.
Anyway, the Giants came away with the W, and sloppy as they were at times, a win is a win. Considering their next stop is LA, for the 18-10 Dodgers, it’s a good thing they were able to rebound and grab a couple wins to end this homestand.
The story today was Madison Bumgarner. Nothing — missed calls, sloppy defense, a lack of run support — was going to get in his way. That’s what it felt like when he worked through that messy fifth inning. And when he rebounded from a leadoff error in the sixth — an inexcusable miscue between Angel Pagan and Brett Pill that put Aramis Ramirez in scoring position — to shut the Brewers down. But the lasting image was when he stepped up to the plate in the fifth inning — following a futile one-pitch at-bat from Conor Gillaspie — and lined a double into left field to tie the game at one.
All in all, he turned in yet another stellar performance on the mound, allowing one run through seven innings of work, as he improved to a 2.31 ERA (3.61 FIP) on the season and carried the Giants to a 5-2 victory. In four of Bumgarner’s six starts this season, he’s gone 7+ innings without allowing more than one run.
Obligatory reminder: he’s 22 years old. His first five starts alone put his 2012 season among the best by a 22-year-old Giants starter. Is there any question he can work his way up to #1 on that list by season’s end?
- Five runs…feels like it’s been a while, eh? It has. Last time they scored five runs in a game was back in Cincinnati, nine days ago.
- Hector Sanchez, who entered this game hitting .233/.244/.302, finally got things going with a pair of doubles (one of which nearly went over the centerfield wall for a homer). These were his second and third extra-base hits on the season, respectively, and needless to say, it’s great to see a game like this out of Hector.
- Melky Cabrera had a quality game as well, with a couple hits (including a triple) and some very good glovework in right field. He’s now put together four consecutive multi-hit games, which has brought him up to a .364 wOBA this season. At this point, it seems pretty clear that I was wrong about Cabrera — something I’m very happy to say.
- Angel Pagan has now hit safely in 19 consecutive games; however, he’s also now gone 16 consecutive games without a walk. I do wonder if he’s slightly altered his approach, becoming more hacktastic for the sake of preserving his hitting streak. It’s not likely, but it’s worth throwing out there. And while we’re on the subject of walks — the Giants had another walk-less game today, keeping their season total at 65. That’s third-worst in the National League.
On the day it was announced that Pablo Sandoval would miss the next six weeks with a broken hamate bone in his left hand, the Giants didn’t do much to raise spirits. In fact, these last three games against the Marlins have featured some pretty shoddy baseball on their part:
- The Giants scored five runs this series. They managed to strand 23 baserunners in this three-game set. They drew a grand total of five walks. As promising — by which I mean “potentially acceptable” — as the Giants’ offense looked at the beginning of the season, they’ve fallen back to earth. Over their last few sets (Reds, Padres, Marlins), they’ve averaged 2.7 runs scored per game. Yuck.
- After collecting a couple hits in back-to-back games, I have to think the whole Brandon Belt fiasco is actually nearing its end. He’s raised his overall line to .292/.370/.396 (120 wRC+), and given that the Giants are starved for run production right now, I think Belt has finally reached the point where he’ll be given regular playing time. At least, I hope so. What a relief that would be.
- With today’s 0-for-2, Brandon Crawford‘s numbers have dropped to .208/.228/.338. That’s a 43 wRC+. At least his glove is…oh, six errors on the year already? I’ve been pretty back-and-forth on the issue of Brandon Crawford. It took a while, but I eventually warmed up to the idea of him as starting shortstop. I’m not hopping off the bandwagon yet, but I’m close. He’s gotten off to a miserable start this season.
- This was Anibal Sanchez‘s fourth career start against the Giants. In 31 innings, he’s now allowed four runs. 24 strikeouts, five walks.
- This is only the second time the Giants have been swept at home in the last year. The last time? Another ugly series against the Marlins.
- We’re a few days into May, which means there’s a lot of baseball left. This Sandoval injury is by no means a nail in the coffin for the Giants. But things are looking pretty bad at this point. They’re already five games back in the NL West, and that alone feels like a lot of ground to make up (of course, there are also a couple wild card spots up for grabs). They’ll need to somehow tread water until Sandoval’s return; with near-automatic outs slotted in at third base, shortstop, and second base, that’s an unenviable task. These next few weeks could very well be disastrous. One can only hope that today was the low point of 2012.
- With today’s performance, Ryan Vogelsong brought his ERA/FIP down to 3.42/3.43 respectively. Through four starts, he’s quietly remained great at the back end of the Giants’ rotation, which was far from a sure thing heading into this season. At least there’s that.
This sucks. Can’t think of any other way to put it. I posted some quick thoughts over at Beyond the Box Score.
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